What just happened in Azerbaijan? An awful lot, and most of it bad. Here is the short version, from the organisers of the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty.
And here is an edited version of an update given by Climate Action Network Australia (CANA). It is better than anything we could have written ourselves:
At 2:40am on Sunday morning Baku time, the gavel came down on COP29 - and squashed hopes at this summit of an ambitious and necessary climate finance goal with it.
Why does this matter?
Climate finance is first and foremost an issue of justice. We can all agree that those countries who have long wreaked - and profited from - climate chaos have a responsibility to #PayUp, and support countries enduring the worst of the climate crisis despite having the least responsibility for causing it.
And it is also true that many countries in the Global South require substantial finance to facilitate their own domestic transitions, without worsening debt burdens. An ambitious, needs-based and justice-driven New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) isn’t a distraction from fossil fuels; it’s a necessary foundation for a full fossil fuel phase out.
So, the litmus test for COP29 was how much public finance high-income countries agreed to provide annually to the Global South. Civil society, low-income countries and independent experts all cited USD $1 trillion as a conservative figure. Yes, that’s a big number. But transitioning the entire world away from fossil fuels, funding adaptation and compensating for loss and damage is a big job.
The number countries landed on, though, was a fair bit smaller. After draft texts that sparked outrage, the COP ended with the agreement of a climate finance goal of USD $300 billion per annum, to be reached by 2035. There are issues with the structure of this goal: it doesn’t address loss and damage; doesn’t set out sub-goals; and there are no real definitions around what does or doesn’t constitute climate finance.
Despite the gavelling, the objections are still coming thick and fast. A number of countries have voiced their dismay in the plenary hall, and you can read quick takes from our global colleagues here.
After multiple COPs hosted by countries with weak civil society, one thing that’s clear is it's time to kick polluter lobbyists out and put people at the heart of COPs. Only then will governments find the courage to make the decisions necessary to keep our friends and families safe from unnatural heat, fires and floods.
Developing country delegations and civil society have been a force at COP29, holding the line on demands for a public finance target that would enable their transition away from fossil fuels; support them to adapt to the climate crisis; and support communities in recovering from loss and damage caused by climate impacts.
They’ve been up against a barrage of blockers. Wealthy countries fixated on developing a financial architecture more convoluted than Baku stadium’s temporary hallways have derailed the process and lowered ambition. Saudi Arabia shook off any pretence that they weren’t there to protect the fossil fuel industry. And above all, the Azerbaijani COP Presidency’s preference for backroom deals kept countries and observers in the dark.
Despite all this, civil society and Global South delegations - particularly Pacific small island states - shone brightly. From bold and creative actions, to holding the line on their demands, to providing community in the corridors - frontline communities play a more essential role than ever.
Fossil fuels
While a strong finance outcome is grounded in climate justice, it’s also foundational for enabling the fossil fuel phase out that countries agreed to at COP28 in Dubai. The USD $300 billion goal will make it more difficult for many low-income countries to move away from fossil fuels as quickly as they’d like. So it’s essential that the climate movement’s attention to finance doesn’t end as we leave Baku.
On the ground, those attending saw an emboldened Saudi Arabia saying the quiet part out loud, and declaring openly that they would oppose outcomes that constrain the fossil fuel industry. As a result, we saw major blockages in workstreams like the Mitigation Work Program, UAE Dialogue and Global Stocktake. In the end, only the UAE Dialogue reiterated the relevant language from last year. With few procedural hooks to keep advancing mitigation at COP30, there’s a need to turn the global movement’s minds towards mechanisms to build the political will - including but not limited to actioning the transition in NDCs.
While the Dubai outcome wasn’t advanced at COP29, rest assured it hasn’t been lost. The fight to end fossil fuels continues.
Reactions from members and allies on the COP29 outcome
- CAN International: Betrayal in Baku: developed countries fail people and planet
- Greenpeace: COP29 ends with weak climate finance goal, eyes turn to Belem
- Keep an eye out for reactions from groups like PICAN and Oxfam.
COP 31
There was no announcement Australia and Pacific nations co-hosting COP31 at the end of 2026, with Türkiye remaining keen to host. The decision has been bumped down the road.
Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty progress
Rather than wait to be disappointed again in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative worked with those attending who were willing to make a difference. They supported a growing bloc of countries seeking to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Treaty to complement the Paris Agreement, as they set the course for the next phase of securing an international negotiating mandate.
At COP29, Treaty Initiative leaders organised the Second Ministerial Meeting of the nation-states forming the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. A cross-section of Ministers and senior government officials from the endorsing nations of the Pacific, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as observers from Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and Europe, gathered to discuss key priorities for the Fossil Fuel Treaty proposal in 2025, including possible legal pathways and mechanisms for financing a just transition.
Treaty Initiative organisers held press conferences to share the progress toward a Fossil Fuel Treaty. They partnered with the Global Alliance of Banking on Values to hold an event exploring how public and private finance can be transformed to phase out fossil fuels and empower Just Transition pathways. We know that the future lies in governments, banks, and civil society collaborating to finance a climate-secure and equitable world, so they launched a new paper, ‘If It’s Not Global, It’s Not Just: How A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Can Accelerate Finance For A Global Just Transition.’
Open letter to world leaders - please sign
Thanks to the Treaty organisers, a number of Australian faith leaders signed an open letter to world leaders, ‘Come together to protect what we love from the threat of fossil fuels’. Will you sign it too?
